1. Extra point? Go for two?
Check the rules for your league. I think it’s much more interesting if you can go for two from the same distance as for the one point kick. This opens the way for a fake kick (see below).
If not, it’s still better to go for two.
What are your chances? According to Fandom:
https://americanfootball.fandom.com/wiki/Two-point_conversionVarioussources estimate the success rate of a two-point conversion to be between 40% and 55%, significantly lower than that of the extra point, though if the higher value is to be believed, a higher expected value is achieved through the two-point conversion than the extra point
It also depends what kind of kicker you’ve got compared to your best short-yardage play. If you figure your odds on a two-pointer are better than 50%, GO FOR IT..
2. Fake punts and fake field goal attempts.
A punt or a field goal attempt is a risk anyway. The ball starts WAY back from the line of scrimmage. A bad snap ruins it. A bad placement for a field goal ruins it, even with a good kicker. Do you have a really reliable kicker? If not, let’s TAKE A RISK.
What else for 4th & long when losing? Think about the hundreds of “Hail Mary” passes and draw plays that failed. A fake punt or fake field goal attempt is a BIG SURPRISE.
The razzle-dazzle long passes are tricky. The end-around runs are good if you can quickly get the ball to a champion sprinter.
Check out the 2000 Sugar Bowl, attempted fake field goal by VT at 9:50 of the 2nd Quarter
(abc on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uV7FmbzPDl0 1:04:23 / 3:02:44) There was LOTS of room to run straight through the middle, but their plan was a pitch-out. Placer and kicker were very nervous. They bobbled it.
On the whole, I’d say this is the one kind of play where I’d choose a run up the middle. A hole regularly opens up there and the defense will be backing up rapidly. Your chances are better than 50%. WHY NOT?
See next post for 3. Go for it on 4th down?
and 4. Use On-side Kick-off “more”?
Thanks for visiting Bob rlgordonjr@hushmail-com